Rabobank Beef Quaterly Q3 2020: New Faces Shaping Future UK Beef Imports
Once outside the European bloc, the UK is expected to become the fifth or sixth largest beef-importing country. Consumer acceptance and non-tariff barriers will play significant roles in determining which countries ultimately supply the UK beef market in the future.
Brexit trade talks between the UK and EU continue to progress. “While pure economic reasoning and geopolitics normally play strong roles in trade negotiations, we believe that, in the case of the UK, consumer acceptance and non-tariff barriers will be equally significant in determining...
When there are consecutive days of triple digit temperatures it can be a challenge to address heat stress in cattle. Producers implement several types of strategies to try and mitigate the effects that high temperatures can have on their livestock. Jesse Larios from Foster Feed Yard in Brawley said they approach the issue by providing shade, fresh water and altering feeding schedules.
“We also change the time of feeding to reduce heat stress. It’s very common for many livestock producers to feed their livestock at night,” Larios noted. “When their animals do consume the feed and it does raise internal temperatures, the body temperatures are being raised at times at night where the heat stress is not as intense.”
COVID-19 has completely disrupted the meat industry, changing how meatpackers work, the way poultry, beef, and pork is produced, how it is purchased by consumers, and traded between countries.
In the short term, the pandemic has seen retailers struggle to meet increased demand for meat, foodservice grind to a halt, and outbreaks in processing plants cause labour shortages. But what does COVID-19 mean for Europe’s meat sector in the long term?
According to Rupert Claxton, Meat Director at consultancy and market research firm Gira, the sector is far from immune from the impending global recession.
At this year’s Belgian Meat Office’s Round Table, held virtually last week, Claxton told delegates he is ‘particularly worried’ about the economic impact of COVID-19, which will be felt well into 2021.
Foodservice: Prepare for a slow recovery
When the novel coronavirus hit, foodservice seemingly shut down overnight. At the same time, demand for meat in retail spiked.
No matter how great this surge in demand, the consumer shift to retail has not made up for the loss of volume in foodservice, said Claxton. And the loss, we were told, is significant.
According to Gira, foodservice in the US is down -27% in 2020 compared to 2019 figures. The market research firm predicts the sector to be down -10% in 2021, again, compared to 2019.
In China, the story is more positive, with foodservice down -24% this year, and predicted to be up 5% compared to 2019 figures by 2021.
In Europe (EU27+UK), foodservice is down a whopping -33% this year, with predictions for 2021 sitting at -14%. “We have a reduced market as a result of the pandemic,” said Claxton.
Increased demand in retail did not make up for demand loss in retail. Pic: GettyImages/JosieN
As European lockdown measures begin to ease and foodservice opens up once more, two key factors are still keeping consumers in the home – for eating, at least.
One is the economic factor, meat market expert Claxton explained, suggesting that loss of income and redundancies mean consumers are limiting their spend. The other is the ‘fear factor’, whereby consumers choose to avoid crowds and public spaces due for fear of infection.
Long-lasting economic impacts
This loss of demand is predicted to continue through 2020, into 2021. “Next year as a whole will remain low, and so challenged in terms of where that demand is. We’ve got to go into 2021 expecting it to be a tougher year and a reduced European market becoming of the economic factors of COVID-19, more so than the physical impact of COVID itself,” we were told.
Of course, there are physical impacts within the sector. Production was hit this year by plant closures and labour shortages across poultry, pork, and beef sectors.
There will be ‘some recovery’ going into 2021, said Claxton, with more ‘normal seasonality’ in production.
But to achieve that, the analyst warned, Europe needs to step up exports. “European demand is going to be weaker, so we’ve got to look for better opportunities outside of Europe, and we’ve got to accept that there are going to be lower prices within the European market. We’re going to have to work harder to find those optimum opportunities.”
The analyst raised concerns that premium products, predominantly sold in foodservice, will also be impacted by the pandemic in the coming months. These include organic and certified products, as well as veal, lamb, beefsteak, and Parma ham.
“I’m really worried about [domestic demand loss] going forward,” said Claxton. “As we go into this phase, where people realise that they don’t have job certainty, that they haven’t got money coming in, that their salaries have been reduced, or that they’ve been laid off, then we’re going to see people downtrade. And it’s the premium products that get hurt.”
Downtrading across the board is to be expected. When Gira analysed shopping behaviour in the wake of the 2008 financial crash, the business observed consumers downtrading from beefsteak to mince, from beef to chicken, and in the developing world, from chicken to eggs and from eggs to vegetables.
Claxton is concerned for the premium meat market, which he expects to be impacted by the economic downturn in the coming months. Pic: GettyImages/Andrej Filonenko
“We are going to see that through the second half of this year and into 2021,” he told delegates. “And so that means less demand around the world, and different ways of servicing it.”
Other factors at play: ASF, animal welfare standards, Brexit…
COVID-19’s impact on the meat industry should be analysed with African swine fever (ASF) in mind. The highly contagious viral disease of domestic and wild pigs has swept through Asia and drastically hit supply in recent times.
China, in particular, has suffered from ASF. In August 2018, the nation reported its first case. “It is still there, and very likely endemic – despite all efforts that have been made – and has taken an industry with a huge backyard pig herd very quickly,” said Claxton.
Gira estimates that pork production in China was down approximately 27 million tonnes between 2018 and 2019. “So everything we discuss with COVID has to be set against this exceptional position we are in, coming out of the ASF situation.”
Germany is also at risk of ASF. “What will happen to their market if they get it?” said Claxton. And COVID’s impact is, of course, ‘far from over’. “We’re through the height of the pandemic [but] the longterm economic impact is still to come.”
Brexit also brings more uncertainty to the situation. Will Europe and the UK be able to trade freely come 1 January 2021? This question is ‘enormously important’ for various cuts of pork and beef, said Claxton. “There is no clarity on that, and we are getting dangerously close to the deadline now.”
Underlying market forces have not gone away, and must be confronted, stressed the Meat Director. These include increasing animal welfare standards, which adds cost to domestic production, and sustainability being of growing importance for consumers – which also comes at an additional cost.
“[Consumers] are looking at the packet now and trying to work out what does [that product] mean in terms of the choices they’re making. This is adding cost to production. Are [consumers] really prepared to pay for that? Or do they expect it to be part of the service?”
Claxton continued: “2021 will be a difficult year of rebalancing and uncertainty and we’ve got to work our way slowly through it.”
In an environment where shoppers continually question what brands and products they can trust. Where increasingly diverse consumers seek to connect with the familiar flavors of their heritage. And home cooks are weary – both from meal preparation and an inability to travel to other cities, states and countries to experience authentic flavors. The National Pork Board is helping America wake up and get real.
Through its new master-brand strategy, the Pork Board invites consumers to experience the authenticity, flavor and ability to bring people together that Real Pork provides.
“Real Pork not only celebrates the authentic flavors of pork, it encompasses the values and beliefs of the pork industry from farm to fork,” said Angie Krieger, vice president of domestic marketing at the Pork Board. “Our work began on this master-brand strategy before the coronavirus appeared in the United States, but the shift in buying and cooking habits the pandemic created certainly accelerated our efforts. Six months in, consumers are weary of meal preparation, they want new experiences and to travel.”
During the pandemic, retail sales of pork have surged as consumers are cooking more at home, purchasing different products than they normally do and experimenting with new recipes. Supported by extensive consumer research, Real Pork aims to not only sustain the growth from pandemic purchasing but extend it long term by highlighting pork’s advantages.
Those advantages begin in the barn, so telling the authentic stories of pig farmers and pig farms – and how pork’s sustainability creates a protein consumers can feel good about feeding their family – will be a critical part of how Real Pork comes to life.
The first introduction of Real Pork to consumers comes this September, and focuses on “Pork as a Passport,” which celebrates pork’s position as a culturally relevant protein around the world. It encourages small adventures for weary quarantine cooks by showcasing delicious pork dishes from next door and across the globe.
Pork as a Passport will help consumers travel through their taste buds via inspiration that will be found in digital, social media, video, and a new landing page at www.pork.org/realpork. A few examples of planned activities include:
-Matching pig farmers with global chefs to connect over pork product
-Highlighting globally inspired pork recipes with modern photography
-Engaging a family psychologist to provide insight about the importance of family meals
-Sharing information on global recipes and flavors using pork through social media influencers
-Connecting U.S. chefs with international chefs to cook and together, create rich sharable videos for online and social media
-Highlighting pork in the most authentic, real and delicious way possible, through street food in a multicultural effort called Menu Urbano
As activities come to life, they will be posted on the new landing page, www.pork.org/realpork and the National Pork Board Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and Pinterest accounts.
COLUMBUS - The Nebraska Pork Producers are doing the best they can to help others during a rough 2020.
Like other pork farmers around the nation, they faced a tremendous backup of hogs when processing plants shut down due to COVID-19.
The group got together with the University of Nebraska’s Loeffel Meat Lab to process pork and give it away to those in need.
Jane Stone, Director of Domestic Marketing with the Nebraska Pork Producers, says the idea started with Columbus-area farmer Bill Luckey.
“He started thinking about it because we had some animals that, with the whole COVID-19 situation, instead of being able to go to market, they were being euthanized. Instead of euthanizing them, how can we get them processed and donate them to the Lincoln Food Bank and places such as that.”
Stone says Pork Cares has processed and given away more than 10,000 pounds of pork to needy people in Nebraska.
The program is on hold for now as classes have resumed at the University of Nebraska, but Stone says the Nebraska Pork Producers are hoping to keep the program going at least one or twice a year going forward.
The Ohio Association of Foodbanks recently received a donation of processed pork from the Hartford Junior Fair youth livestock auction. The donation, more than 15,000 pounds of pork, will be split among several local charities, including the Food Pantry Network of Licking County, the Ronald McDonald House, Recreation Unlimited, and the Mid-Ohio Food Collective. The donation comes from the annual 4-H and FFA junior fair exhibitors’ livestock auction where Englefield Oil Company, Heartland Bank and Licking County Farm Bureau purchased livestock from the auction and the Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction (ODRC) processed the meat. This year’s donation from the Hartford Junior Fair youth livestock auction is the largest contribution to date.
“We sincerely appreciate the generosity of so many organizations that have stepped up to support our 4-H and FFA youth and to make this much-needed high-protein food donation possible,” said Lisa Hamler-Fugitt, executive director of the Ohio Association of Foodbanks. “The donation will help feed many hungry Ohioans at a time when individuals and families are struggling more than ever before. Every contribution makes a difference.”
In addition to the donation from Hartford fair youth, Englefield Oil, Heartland Bank and Licking County Farm Bureau helped cover additional costs related to transporting and processing the donation. The donation will allow the foodbank network to continue serving hungry Ohioans in need during this prolonged time of increased need.
“It is extremely encouraging to see 4-H and FFA youth and businesses in our community come together to make such an impactful donation to help those in need,” said Chip Carpenter, Hartford Fair auctioneer. “The willingness of the junior fair youth and local companies and organizations to join forces to donate high-quality pork to the foodbanks and other charities is a nod to how truly selfless this community is. A huge thank you to these youth, Englefield Oil Company, Heartland Bank, Licking County Farm Bureau and ODRC for their efforts to make this happen.”
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis in March, hunger relief providers have reported a 98% increase in demand for food assistance. Due to the increased need at all foodbanks around the state, the association asks for donations and support during this extended time of need.
Ohioans and companies looking to donate or volunteer, or seeking help with food, can visit ohiofoodbanks.org/coronavirus for more information.
(KMAland) -- The coronavirus pandemic has brought significant change to all of our lives. According to Kiersten Hafer, who works on strategy and consumer insights for the Pork Checkoff, says there has been positive news for ground pork.
“Ground pork sales have surged since March first, and the increases that we’ve seen week-over-week have ranged from 69 percent growth in one week to about 22 percent growth through the July timeframe, and it’s a case where we’ve really benefited. Consumers are cooking more at home and it’s really been this trial period for ground pork. What we found was that 45 percent of the shoppers that have purchased since March were not actually purchasing ground pork in the prior year. So, we’ve had a chance to pick up all of these new councils and all of these new consumers, and it’s a really exciting time for us.”
Shoppers are buying more ground pork and Hafer believes overall consumer behaviors are changing.
“As they’re cooking at home more, as they’re spending more time at home with their family, they’re trying a lot of new recipes and ground pork rose to the top in that. And, we found that they were using that ground pork purchase within 2-3 days, and they were making things like meatballs or meatloaf. We’ve actually seen some special diets and eating regimens rise to the top and ignite some of the popularity of ground pork, things like ‘eggroll in a bowl.’ We seem to be extremely successful in making ground pork a destination product, but more exciting that that is these buyers were really satisfied with their eating experience and they told us the taste and the flavor of ground pork really delivered on their expectations. We found that nine out of ten of those consumers were going to go repurchase ground pork again in the future.”
The sales data for ground pork is exciting and Hafer says the Pork Checkoff is working to maintain that momentum.
“We’ve been out talking with packer processors and sharing a lot of what we found through the research and survey work we’ve done, and we’re sharing that in an effort to help them decide how to focus their messaging and communications, not only with retailers but with consumers. So, helping retailers understand the value of ground pork and making sure it’s available in stores is number one, and then number two, in all of their social and recipe development and marketing messaging, we’re helping them understand that leading with recipes could be a really good way for them to maintain that demand for ground pork. With retailers, we’re out talking with them about the importance of ground pork and the fact that it has become a destination product, and that it’s really important to have it on the shelf. If they don’t have it on the shelves, they may risk a consumer going to another retailer to find it.”
As always, pork checkoff-funded information is available at pork-dot-org. For more information, producers can contact the Pork Checkoff Service Center. Go to Pork-dot org or call 800-456-PORK.
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